初心者の方へのお願い

皆様
お疲れ様です。
最近問い合わせが多いのは初心者的な質問です。是非、訊きたいことがあれば、訊いてください。
なお、初心者さんたちへ一つお願いがあります。 同じく始めて購入していただく方へ同じお願いがあります。シグナルを始めて受信したら、しばらく、実際に取引しないままでフォローしていただければと思います。
本サービスに限らず、何回かシグナルを受信し、そのシグナルのやり方、タイミングなどに慣れてから、トレードを行ってください。投資をするのは慌ててやるものではありませんからです。徐々に知識や取引スキルをあげながら、目標を持ち、楽しくFX取引を行いましょう。

目標

今月の成績をさきほどブログに挙げました。自分にとてはあまり満足できない成績です。プラスにはなっているんですが、Jupiterは2月前半で+895Pipとなりました。そのままサービスを3月まで何もしない方がよかったとも言えますが、システムトレードでは、シグナルが出れば、トレードをするものです。

皆様はどのような目標を持っているんでしょうか？月１００Pips?２００Pips?Jupiterの2月で最大+895Pipsのままで、もうどんなシグナルがきても、もうトレードしないくらいのいい成績です。目標をつくって、達成すれば、もうトレードしなくても良いと思います。

トレードをするのは必ずロスが出る可能性があるものです。今月のJupiterのように、せっかく良い具合で儲かってたPipsをRiskして、トレードを続き、結局895が+300となりました。2月がプラスで終わったのは幸いですが、常にロスが出る可能性と頭の中に入れていただき、自分の目標Pipsについたら、完全に（シグナルの元の）トレードをやめ、又はかけている分を少なくするかはいかがでしょうか。

FX又は投資で勝つのが取引回数を増やすんではなく、Profitを増やしながら、Riskを減少することです。ある意味取引をしないこともProfitを増やすことと見なされます。（トレードをしないから、Profitが減らないという視点で考えてみれば。）

February Results

Jupiter :
EURJPY   +85
GBPJPY   +165
AUDJPY   +55
TOTAL     +305

Pluto :
+60

Disappointing results this month. February has been one of the toughest months yet. Jupiter started off quickly at +895, but then a string of losing trades, most of which were due to early entry and tighter stops.

Monday Morning

Well, unfortunately none of the fibo retracements occurred.

We did have Divergence form on Aussie and Euro yens, and an ealry entry call, followed by a spike up in the EURJPY caused a tight stop to be hit. Just a tad more patience would have seen about 100pips with potential for more on the EURJPY alone. AUDJPY, like the Aussie battler it is, is still in there. Just need it to clear this 82.00 level to realise some nice profit on the trade.

8:30pm here and the markets are in desperate need of some liquidity!

Outlook for Monday 22nd Feb

Friday evening saw quite an impulsive move across the pairs. I'll take a look at a couple and provide my ideas on where I think they will go with Monday's markets. Note that I may think anything I like, it is the market that determines where it goes.:)

No major news expected for Monday for the USDCAD or USDCHF. Even if there were, it would be more pertinent to their respective time zones. (Courtesy of http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php)

USDCAD

 

 This was a very large impulsive move. What typically happens with impulsive moves is a retracement. 

Above, the green lines represent extended levels of support and resistance from a 4Hr chart.

I would like to see a little further push down just to retest the the lower level of support. Though price is already at the "00" mark - 1.0401. Then expect some hesitancy, indicated by the black arrows going up, then back down bouncing around the 1.0410 area.

The overall target area is a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move down on Friday evening. We may get a little further extension to retest the level of resistance at 1.0450. This area is identified by the red circle. It would further benefit a long here if we could get the full 50% retracement, but I would prefer to take profit around the 38.2% area.

Looking for 40-50 pips off this.If I can't get an entry below the 1.0400 area off a retest of the lower support level, then I would be looking for 1 of the two potential entry scenarios.

1. A bounce down off 1.0410.
2. wait for a break of 1.0410 with an Entry of around 1.0415

USDCHF 

 

I really like it when two different technical indications overlap on the same area. Although the upper S/R line isn't too clean, it does represent a similar level to where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is. I think you may be able to push those extra 10odd pips in a long, but I would be happy to take profit at the 00 - 1.0800.

Similarly as with the USDCAD, I would expect some price hesitation where the orange dotted line is. It represents a level of historical resistance that can be identified above the lower "1Hr S/R" n the left. Toward the middle of the chart, and at the same level, you can see that price has had issues at this level. Once it is cleared though, it should leave a clear path to 1.0800. Overall that is only about 15-20pips.

Again, similar to the USDCAD projection, one entry scenario would be to wait for a rejection of the reistance indicated by the orange dotted line giving an entry about 1.0760, or waiting for the resistance to break around 1.0780. If there is a strong push up as part of the retracement, 1.0810 would be a secondary target to the original 1.0800

Potential Issues

Depending on where you are in the world, Monday morning can be a little difficult as some brokers don't allow orders too early basing their order availablity off a more local (to the broker) time zone. Or in cases like Oanda, orders can be placed early Monday morning (Asia time), but with the cost of so called "weekend spreads".

As indicated earlier, there are no major news announcements expected for these pairs, so my projection is a nice run to the 38.2% retracement level. 

Secondly, The Australian, New Zealand and Singaporean markets may collectively push price closer to the projected targets before retail FX brokers allow trade entry. This is obviously a per broker basis, and as such cannot be correctly anticipated. As a trade plan though, this is the proposed outlook for the USDCAD and USDCHF for Monday 22nd February.

Remaining Flexible
Assuming the Aussie markets push us past a good entry point for the BUYs on the pairs above, what I would be looking for then is a stabling out of price around the 38.2% level during the afternoon Asian session. Closing in on London, I would be then looking for continued USD Weakness and as such a continuation of the original Friday evening moves. 

GBPUSD would be interesting around the 1.5420, perhaps even giving a nice 00 retest at 1.5400.
EURUSD 1.3540
AUDUSD 0.8950
USDCHF/USDCAD as per above explanations.

Cheers

Service Start to Current

We are often asked to supply as much historical service data as possible. I don't handle the actual site management, but am quite happy to supply an update here. These are LIVE service results, not backtesting or the like.

Kindly note that on the main service site, the month of November reflects positive results. This is based on my not so leet excel skills, and I apologise for the mistake. I have requested the site admin to correct it as per the below results table.

A Few Changes

Firstly, apologies for the lack of updates. I have been having some writer's block.

If you venture to the home site, you will notice that we are changing the layout a little. I am sure we will make some more changes as we progress. I don't have any definite information yet, but I have heard that there may be some more products coming your way in the not so distant future. Variety is the spice of life after all!

We started this service with the honest intention of helping traders out there add to their portfolios. In the realm of internet businesses, we are trying to find the ideal price for our subscribers. When Jupiter was tested, and in the first month of live, we were seeing in excess of 1000pips per pair. 2009 was a difficult year, and the reality is, Jupiter did not perform at that high rate of return. Performance was still very acceptable, but not what we had seen in past results. It would not be fair to our subscribers to continue with the originally planned and as such, you will see a new pricing structure for Jupiter Signals.

You can now receive signals for all THREE pairs as opposed to each individually. To be honest, this takes a load off my shoulders as well. When you take a trading strategy live to paying subscribers, there is always a nagging pressure to perform. And this can sometimes work against you.

So now, all three are one package and for a drastically reduced price. We have already seen within the first 2 weeks of January, up to 1265 pips!!!! Unfortunately, Friday morning (22nd) I got Obamafied, and we got knocked out with a huge spike down. But still, overall performance for Jupiter is at 980pips!!!

Still a week to go!

January also sees us go Live with PLUTO SIGNALS. And I really don't know what to say here. I could NOT pick a winner! The market would move to our entry...hit it...and then immediately race to our stops. My biggest surprise here is not having losers. Losers are part of trading. But this many CONSECUTIVE losing trades????? I offer my humblest apologies to our subscribers of this service.

Pluto currently stands at -140 pips. Considering we have had over 20calls, that's not too bad a loss. Still, no service should have a loser on its first month. T.T